Discussion in 'The Pavilion' started by Munna, Aug 18, 2018.
ding ding ding
all that policy has ever gotten Pak is deferment of payments and temp hold on interest. Happens during dictatorship e.g. Zia in the 80's and Mush in the 2000's
Until Pak produces a trade surplus, it will be rinse, repeat.
i had the same opinion untill recently, dont actually completely agree. the problem is our military builds and handles the relation with the americans, but it was the civilian govt. responsibility to build relations with everyone else and get the economy rolling, instead they always chose to get the money out of american aid, military box. i believe it is our defense budget which puts our military under pressure. in last few years, americans are least bothered about afghanistan, they got what they wanted, so we dont have the cash flow from washington. the state balance is already in the minus. chinese help but they dont pay you blindly like the americans. saudia will only give you what they have already given. for the military, americans are the best lenders, but how do we convince them now unless we have a NEW reason for them to keep them interested in AfPAK.
Khalilzad visited Pakistan earlier this month, he is meeting the taliban leaders in qatar previously. something is cooking up between pentagon and pindi. there is a new strategy in the making and lets see what role GHQ convinces the pentagon for.
our military needs america full stop. no matter how much we criticize our defense budget, we need it in this situation.
What I have heard is totally different...
Odds are high that Khan will dissolve this BS parliament which is good for nothing in coming weeks, because this rotten system isn't functioning at all. Rumors are (which might be true) that Pakistan is heading towards presidential system, which could also be Islamic. Of course, this will take some time, because they would have to re-engineer the constitution, which is not small task.
In this new presidential system there will be no room for these thugs like Nawaz and Zardari, nor any room for filthy electables.
So this was a backhand coup. I am not sure how dissolving parliament is going to help the awam. We are moving towards dictatorship.
Did you not read that part about "Presidential System"?
What this parliament has given people other than complete chaos and corruption?
its no wonder that Indian islamophobes might agree with this statement - speaks volumes as to who these kinds of views benefit most.
I don't think any of us know what this presidential system might look like in order to judge it as a dictatorship, but are you saying you prefer the previous duo-oligarchy that has destroyed the country to date and made it deficient even to much smaller states like Bangladesh?
I don't believe that a presidential system is on the cards, IK doesn't appear to have the political momentum to carry it off at this point for one thing, and secondly, rewriting the constitution will be way too long a task to achieve this quickly by this incompetent a legislature in my opinion.
but I find it very difficult to see how anyone would view a hypothetical presidential system as inferior to the prior system that we have had. I cant in fact see how any system at all, including a dictatorship, would not be superior to what we have had.
perhaps pertinent to hear another opinion on just how troubled the waters are amongst that prior status quo:
heres more of the status quo, probably the most predictable story in the universe:
nawaz feels he must go abroad for medical treatment. I wonder if he feels all convicted criminals should be allowed this luxury?
It is on the cards because the establishment wants to, that is how they do it, first start the rumors, create the idea, let the people accept it through media, and then bang. same scenario as changing the ministers recently. i personally believe imran will get irrelevant in presidential system.
PTI leader Sarah Ahmed made chairperson of Child Protection Bureau
So immy and his team met the IMF in China. Guess they have asked China to parchi for them and not the US yet!
Khalilzad bhai is back in town, probably at GHQ.
I miss Imran's Jalsas tbh.
Yes he still does speeches but jalsa is better.
@Wistful came back and got banned again?!? nobody told me
Inevitably, imran khan bending backwards and asking IMF to kick his was by appointing their nominated finance minister and state bank governor. I hope they know what they are doing.
36 projects in eight months show sense of responsibility: PM
ISLAMABAD: The prime minister has claimed that the government had started 36 projects relating to public welfare and economic development in a brief period of eight months as part of implementing its manifesto.
well looks like the IMF deal has been finally struck. https://tribune.com.pk/story/1971509/2-pakistan-imf-strike-6-billion-deal-hafeez-shaikh/
looking at the commentary of the text, its astonishing just how precariously disastrous the country's finances were in, and yet armchair commentary based on very little common sense let alone economic intelligence still spouts trivial criticisms of the current regime.
the people are having to suffer, and will suffer much more, but there is no doubt whatsoever that this is the fault of the previous decades of governance. its absolutely shocking that people cannot see this.
Lets hope for some economic stability.
Khan is really trying his best but is surrounded by mir jaffar n mir sadiq and the economic conditions are just icing on cake.
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dude the state that sharif and Zardari left the country in is so much worse than anyone can comprehend, what the hell would they have done if they were still in charge? probably this:
please watch, very short. this is exactly what happened in Pakistan. its the voice of the well known author of 'confessions of an economic hitman'.
they wouldnt have done so much damage had they not seen before elections that khan is getting into power this time. i guess they looted the most in the last 1 year to 6 months.
he is hoping outsiders would be more loyal to pakistan than the pakistanis.
people are expecting imf will tighten the noose. there is a trend going on projecting going to IMF is the worst decision ever. as if we are going in for the first time.
Yeah he is fighting on so many fronts..
Against our media, against international media and above all the people surrounding him.
People say he cant build a team, but is that his problem if every second person is corrupt and has his personal benefits more important than anyone ?
If he does succeed, this will be against all odds and one of the biggest achievement in history of mankind.
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How do you get to that conclusion?
IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on Economic Policies with Pakistan for a Three-Year Extended Fund Facility
The Extended Fund Facility arrangement aims to support the authorities’ strategy for stronger and more inclusive growth by reducing domestic and external imbalances, removing impediments to growth, increasing transparency, and strengthening social spending.
An ambitious structural reform agenda will supplement economic policies to rekindle economic growth and improve living standards.
Financing support from Pakistan’s international partners will be critical to support the authorities’ adjustment efforts and ensure that the medium-term program objectives can be achieved.
In response to a request by the Pakistani authorities, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Mr. Ernesto Ramirez Rigo visited Islamabad, Pakistan from April 29 to May 11 to discuss IMF support for the authorities’ economic reform program. At the end of the visit, Mr. Ramirez Rigo made the following statement:
“The Pakistani authorities and the IMF team have reached a staff level agreement on economic policies that could be supported by a 39-month Extended Fund Arrangement (EFF) for about US$6 billion. This agreement is subject to IMF management approval and to approval by the Executive Board, subject to the timely implementation of prior actions and confirmation of international partners’ financial commitments. The program aims to support the authorities’ strategy for stronger and more balanced growth by reducing domestic and external imbalances, improving the business environment, strengthening institutions, increasing transparency, and protecting social spending.
“Pakistan is facing a challenging economic environment, with lackluster growth, elevated inflation, high indebtedness, and a weak external position. This reflects the legacy of uneven and procyclical economic policies in recent years aiming to boost growth, but at the expense of rising vulnerabilities and lingering structural and institutional weaknesses
. The authorities recognize the need to address these challenges, as well as to tackle the large informality in the economy, the low spending in human capital, and poverty. In this regard, the government has already initiated a difficult, but necessary, adjustment to stabilize the economy, including thorough support from the State Bank of Pakistan. These efforts need to be strengthened. Decisive policies and reforms, together with significant external financing are necessary to reduce vulnerabilities faster, increase confidence, and put the economy back on a sustainable growth path, with stronger private sector activity and job creation.
“The EFF aims to support the authorities’ ambitious macroeconomic and structural reform agenda during the next three years. This includes improving public finances and reducing public debt through tax policy and administrative reforms to strengthen revenue mobilization and ensure a more equal and transparent distribution of the tax burden. At the same time, a comprehensive plan for cost-recovery in the energy sectors and state-owned enterprises will help eliminate or reduce the quasi-fiscal deficit that drains scarce government resources. These efforts will create fiscal space for a substantial increase in social spending to strengthen social protection as well as in infrastructure and human capital development. The modernization of the public finance management framework will increase transparency and spending efficiency. Provinces are committed to contribute to these efforts by better aligning their fiscal objectives with those of the federal government.
“The forthcoming budget for FY2019/20 is a first critical step in the authorities’ fiscal strategy. The budget will aim for a primary deficit of 0.6 percent of GDP supported by tax policy revenue mobilization measures to eliminate exemptions, curtail special treatments, and improve tax administration. This will be accompanied by prudent spending growth aimed at preserving essential development spending, scaling up the Benazir Income Support Program and improve targeted subsidies, with the goal of protecting the most vulnerable segments of society.
“The State Bank of Pakistan will focus on reducing inflation, which disproportionately affects the poor, and safeguarding financial stability. A market-determined exchange rate will help the functioning of the financial sector and contribute to a better resource allocation in the economy. The authorities are committed to strengthening the State Bank of Pakistan’s operational independence and mandate.
“An ambitious structural reform agenda will supplement economic policies to rekindle economic growth and improve living standards. Priority areas include improving the management of public enterprises, strengthening institutions and governance, continuing anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism efforts, creating a more favorable business environment, and facilitating trade. To improve fiscal management the authorities will engage provincial governments on exploring options to rebalance current arrangements in the context of the forthcoming National Financial Commission.
“The IMF team is grateful to the Pakistani authorities for open and constructive discussions and their hospitality.”
Qasim Suri is one guy in PTI I really admire. Despite being the deputy speaker of National assembly, when he recently visited the UK, he stayed in a small one bedroom apartment out of his own pocket instead of living in a 5-start hotel. He did come on a personal visit but ended up visiting the House of Commons and Lords, meeting and chatting up with MPs and Lords of Pakistani descent re political and financial situation in Pakistan and invited the figureheads of Pakistani expats to come and invest in Pakistan.
Then we have a long list of parasites like Azam Swati and Firdous Ashiq Awan.
Whats is the situation on the ground?
Pkr has slid (1 usd = 148 pkr). thats gotta be hitting prices all around.
The rumor is IMF wants a free float and usd is expected to stabilize at 160 pkr.
Does a weak currency matter?
Japan yen is 0.0071 pound sterling, if you look at currency it would mean UK has the strongest but UK.
I'm no expert exactly.
To some degree, you are correct, the trends matter more.
However, I think the yen is closer to a penny than a dollar. don't think in Japan, they have quarters, dimes, nickels and pennies.
No its not that simple. Yen was designed to be measured in very small units, so it compares very low in terms of numerical digits when compared with other currencies.
The unit of measurement of a currency has nothing to do with its actual value (purchasing power)
To give you some context.
1 Yen is equal to 0.0091 USD
The projected GDP per capita (nominal) for Japan for 2019 is actually 4,559,086.35 Yen, which equals 41418 USD, which places Japan at no. 26 on global GDP per capita list, whilst the UK is 23 (42036 USD)
some say 165, 170. point is this will make businesses vulnerable for the time being.
Imran khan have not done any 'khitaab' since the india backlash days. he has not taken the public in confidence with respect to economy. this is wrong.
Federal government assumes control of major Karachi hospitals
Karachi: Federal Ministry of National Health Services, Regulation and Control has taken over the administrative control of three major Karachi hospitals that include National Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre and National Institute of Child Health Karachi.
im hearing some worrying speculation apparently from inside pakistan concerned that there will be significant unrest in pakistan toward the end of the year. it was from a professional body looking for security clearance to attend a conference in pakistan.
lets hope it doesn't happen. this is an old story from 2014 - but the spectre of it still seems current:
Interesting i will watch the video later, but the unrest seems inevitable now. with severe taxes expected in next budget, noose tightening on zardari and co., they will support these unrest. obviously with IMF being controlled by the americans, it may have an effect aswell. Lets see, it may be neglected by the public or the media but i am quite certain that the military is well aware of the game, and they are supporting Imran, clearly. But lets see for how long.
bit of a reality check for the arm chair economists: