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Discussion in 'The Pavilion' started by pat, Jan 28, 2019.
The whole thing is a farce. Me thinks the Govt does not want to leave..hence beating around the bush.
I don't think theres any chance a hard Brexit is avoided at this point. both sides were incompetent in making their cases, but we are where we are. the government has obviously been either breathtakingly incompetent at getting to this point, which I think is the greatest likelihood, or deliberately brought us to a point of no deal on the brink, to force a reappraisal of the deal.
I cant see how the EU can back down over their position now, and I cant see how parliament can pass what looks like an atrocious deal. so hard brexit it is.
there will no doubt be tonnes of scaremongering about what will happen, and who knows hat will happen as a result of a hard brexit, suspect it wil be tough, but the doomsday scenario that is being presented, and ultimately over time, things normalise and clever and greedy people will figure out how to fix things.
the upshot is that this era will hopefully mark the death of traditional politics and the way that the hoi poloi have been hoodwinked by the political class for centuries.
most of the parliamentarians on all sides do not deserve to be there.
Trying to figure what UK is trying to do.
UK seems to want the benefit of single market EU trade rules without having to allow people movement.
and as a 3rd party with stake in this, UK seems utterly confused about his whole thing.
1) It doesn't look like the public knew what they were voting for or what the consequences are
2) the party which wanted this, the Tory's have no clue which side of the bridge they want to jump off from.
EU is not going to budge on the separate customs thing. Is Dover set up to handle this in 60 days?
Is UK going to wave the trucks thru? If it does, it means EU will have no problem with its exports. If it doesn't, UK supply chain is going to be f'd up.
EU is not going to wave the trucks thru' at calais. This will screw UK exports.
Sounds like UK hasn't game planned this at all!
so May is trying to run out the clock.
Do aam admi brits care?
the more I hear the common brits speak, dumber they sound
here is hoping britain crashes out of EU and brexiteers beae the brunt if it!
whats is the mood in Ireland?
Disbelief, dismay and anger.
Disbelief - that the UK would vote for this. However the UK is a separate country and if they want to, thats totally fine. We're not trying to stop them. We just want them to uphold their end of the GFA.
Dismay - at the absolute crap being said about Ireland by many many prominent UK politicians, a timely reminder of why we never wanted to be ruled by them in the first place. From MP's threatening to starve us to gain leverage in negotiations, to MP's claiming "all English people are automatically entitled to Irish passports" to the ERG mob acting astonished that Ireland wont simply leave the EU, torpedo our own economy and join the UK to solve the border issue. We really are incredulous at the sheer scale of the ignorance. I could write thousands of words on this alone.
Anger - At the absolute lies being spouted by people about how we are inventing the border problem, that technology can fix it, that we should know our place, that we are creating the problems, that we are causing the problem.
In summary, no two parties in Irish politics ever, ever agree on anything. They constantly flip flop to appear in opposition to gain votes. But on Brexit, there is unanimous agreement from every single party, literally every single one, on how our government are approaching this. SF and FG are about as politically aligned as the PTI and the PMLN, yet on this they are united. Its pretty incredible to see such consensus.
People here are becoming increasingly worried about No Deal, but there is also , and always has been, a confidence that when push comes to shove a deal will be reached. The UK would be committing economic suicide with a no deal, only a matter of time before the DUP get thrown under a bus.
And in the unlikely event of a No Deal? United Ireland within ten years, which solves the problem.
RAmen to that.
I have to say I'm little puzzled at the lack of interest on here and other places? I was under the impression bulk of members here and other places are UK citizens of south asian origin.
so, May out on Tuesday?
How did it come about that, the greta victory over EU, the current brexit deal, announced by Theresa May with fanfare in december has somehow become a EU dupe in matter of 3 months?
Are british public daft enough to buy into this narrative?
so much for the additional legal guarantee. Juncker says with May beside him that this deal has been on the table for 105 days.
UK MP's would mungs to vote for this deal now after rejecting it in January.
for exiters lurking around
Just keeps getting crazier and crazier.
Wtf is happening to the UK
there are mistakes in life one can fix and those which cannot be fixed.
Exiters are going to learn the hard way that #brexit is the latter.
the lack of integrity around this whole thing is alarming.
the whole developed world looks back to "old english law" on many issues which their laws are not designed to deal with and you have a 52:48 vote deciding on a complex issue, the consequences of which many of the elected official didn't understand.
this would be funny as hell if it wasn't for real.
any chance we can have a points trading system on the forum based on brexit predictions?
Would make one hell of a drinking game
and it keeps getting better. LMAO! What a country of clowns.
Can't help conclude that UK is country of dumbfucks at this point.
So how did cricistani's vote (if eligible) in the EU referendum! Let's hear hit
Leave means leave!
Jmogg and boris can't seem to agree on what that leave is!
Why does what DUP decides should guide jmogg?
Utter basket case of a country
what a shambolic excuse for a country.
Can't believe they have a security council veto.
any cricistani brexiters who can weigh in?
any boris johnson fans around?
The head of the World Trade Organisation has blown a hole in Boris Johnson’s Brexit plans as Conservative members vote on whether he should become party leader and prime minister.
Mr Johnson has argued that if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal on 31 October, businesses will still be able to continue tariff-free trade with Europe under an obscure trading law known as Gatt 24. Without this protection, thousands of goods traded between the UK and the EU would be subject to standard WTO tariffs, adding considerably to costs to consumers.
But WTO director general Roberto Azevedo has now baldly stated that the mechanism – which his organisation oversees – cannot be invoked unless the parties involved have reached agreement on a future trade deal.
Gotta love Maajid!
The Labour leader made a major speech this morning, promising to do everything necessary "to stop a disastrous no-deal Brexit".
After listening to Mr Corbyn's speech, a wound-up Maajid let loose, insisting that Remainers simply don't trust the Labour leader to lead the country.
Speaking while standing in for James O'Brien, Maajid said: "Mr Corbyn has done everything possible up until this point to thwart any Remain-backed plans. The man has been a Brexiter from before I was born.
"In 1974, Jeremy Corbyn voted against European integration. And every single time the subject of European integration came up in Parliament since then, the man has voted against a ever closer union.
Maajid Nawaz had strong words for Jeremy Corbyn. Picture: PA / LBC
"So why should anyone believe that this man has suddenly found he's Remain conscience and wants to lead this nation back to the great and the good.
"It is simply not plausible and remain backing MPs know this. Because the Remain-supporting MPs see through you. And they see through your transparency.
"You're a Brexiter who hijacked the Labour Party, as your own deputy, Tom Watson realises, which is why he's spoken out so boldly against you.
"So, yes, it's good that you will support a motion of no confidence against Boris Johnson. But it is not good, it is not good if you think you can then come in at this last stage at the 11th hour and lead the people that you betrayed.
"We don't trust you Mr. Corbyn to stop Brexit, you are not a Remainer.
"I'd rather have Ken Clarke than you, as the caretaker Prime Minister to stop Brexit. I'd rather have Dominic Grieve than you as the caretaker Prime Minister to stop Brexit.
"Guess why? Because what matters to me more is that they supported remaining in the European Union, not that they are members of the Conservative Party.
"You are tribal, and your tribal to your tribal faction within your tribe. It's like a sub-tribe, like a sect, led by people at Momentum. You just want to stop the Tories. We want to stop Brexit. They're not the same thing. They are different things.
"And at the end of the day, at the end of the day, we all know that what you did is you betrayed the interests of this country for the narrow party political interests of the Corbyn-led Labour Party. And so what you're promising us now I'm afraid is too little and too late."
so the dumbfuck BOJO thinks he can come up with a solution in 30 days that he couldn't in 3 years.
The government is expected to table a motion to hold a general election on 14 October if it is defeated by MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit on Tuesday.
Boris Johnson said he did not want an election, but progress with the EU would be "impossible" if they won.
Tory rebels are joining forces with Labour to bring a bill designed to stop the UK leaving the EU on 31 October without an agreement.
It would force the PM to request a delay to 31 January 2020 in that event.
Speaking outside No 10, Mr Johnson insisted that with MPs' backing, he would be able to achieve changes to the UK's current Brexit deal - negotiated by Theresa May and rejected three times in the Commons - at an EU summit on 17 October.
Theresa May after Boris lost control of the parliment. Is that glee on her face? LMAO.
Did you BoJo's comment
The people of NI are british but the cattle are Irish. Is he signalling he will throw DUP under the bus?
I've said from day one they will and I still think they'll try.
Thatcher did it in the heyday of the conflict also.
I heard that if NI gets to be in the single market as Brexit compromise, Scotland might ask for the same. So what are they going to do? put a border between Scotland and rest of UK?
UK will break up if Brexit happens. Its a guarantee.
Can't make this stuff up.
Boris Johnson 'surprised' by level of Irish border checks
EU sources say PM seemed taken aback when shown implications of his Brexit plan
Boris Johnson expressed surprise to his advisers during lunch with Jean-Claude Juncker as he was informed about the scale of checks still needed on the island of Ireland under his alternative plan for the Irish border, according to EU sources.
The two-hour lunch in Luxembourg was said by both sides to have been “positive” but EU officials conceded the advantage for them had been in being able to spell out the problems directly to the prime minister. “It seems to have helped the penny drop,” said one diplomatic source.
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During talks with Juncker and the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, the prime minister was shown in detail how allowing Northern Ireland to stick to common EU rules on food and livestock, known as sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS),would still fail to avoid checks on the vast majority of goods that cross the Irish border.
Downing Street has described as “nonsense” a report in the Financial Times that Johnson turned to his chief negotiator, David Frost, and the Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, and said: “So you’re telling me the SPS plan doesn’t solve the customs problem?”
But senior EU sources speaking to the Guardian confirmed that Johnson had expressed surprise during the lunch at the complexity of the situation, and that it appeared to have been a “bit of a reality check to hear it from EU officials”.
Sources said it was not the case that Johnson had failed to understand the role of the shared customs territory in the Irish backstop but that it was the scale of checks that would still be necessary without such an arrangement that appeared to hit home.
A second EU diplomat confirmed: “When the commission explained the technical challenges and enduring need for customs checks under the UK proposals, Johnson expressed surprise in the direction of his advisers.”
In his address to the European parliament on Wednesday, Juncker hinted at the problems that remained. “I have no emotional attachment to the backstop,” Juncker said of his talks with Johnson. “But I made clear that I do have an intimate commitment to its objectives.”
Given the wide gap between the two sides, Juncker also expressed doubts about the possibility that a mutually agreeable replacement for the Irish backstop would be agreed before 31 October when Johnson has said the UK will leave, “do or die”.
This is going to end well I'm sure.
BELFAST — For the three former members of a Northern Irish loyalist paramilitary group, the stakes in the Brexit negotiations could hardly be higher. Handled badly, they say, Britain’s effort to leave the European Union could threaten the island’s fragile peace.
John, Harry and Tom — curt, graying men now in their 60s or older — each spent time in prison for their role in the conflict that divided Northern Ireland between the republicans who sought a united Ireland and the loyalists who wanted the region to remain part of the U.K.
Once members of the Ulster Volunteer Force — one of the two main loyalist paramilitary groups that carried out a three-decade-long campaign of bombing and shooting — they’re speaking in the offices of a charity working to further the peace and help former combatants integrate back into society. Wary of public exposure as former combatants, the three agreed to speak only on the condition that their voices not be recorded and only their first names be published.
Less than 120 meters away rises Belfast’s biggest “peace wall” — a towering barrier separating their community, the loyalist neighborhood Shankill, from an Irish republican area on the other side. More than 20 years after the 1998 Good Friday Agreement brought a formal end to the fighting, gates are still closed at night to prevent skirmishes between the two communities: On both sides, there's demand to keep the barriers in place so residents can feel safe.
In a conversation in which tensions were broken with flashes of black humor — often at Westminster's expense — the three men said they had supported the 1998 peace agreement that led the paramilitaries to gradually disarm. But they spoke of serious reservations about how it has worked out in practice. Tensions are rising, they said, warning of civil unrest and violence — depending what happens with Brexit.
"I was 20 when I joined the UVF. If I was 20 now, I would certainly be looking for something to join." — former Ulster Volunteer Force member John
"I was 20 when I joined the UVF," said John, the most senior of the three. "If I was 20 now, I would certainly be looking for something to join."
View from the Shankill
The area of Belfast where the three men have agreed to speak to POLITICO is one of the parts of Northern Ireland where the region’s divisions are most visibly stark. The streets around the offices where they are sitting are emblazoned with Union Flags, poppies, and tributes to victims of attacks by the nationalist Irish Republican Army. On the other side of the peace wall, the neighborhood is dominated by Irish tricolors, republican lilies and murals of hunger strikers.
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Recent months have seen an escalation of violence in Ireland by dissident republicans, with a spate of serious bomb attacks, the killing of a journalist and rioting. There are clear signs that those involved are young people who were born in peace time.
On the loyalist side of the sectarian divide, pro-British violent actors retain a strong role in communities in Northern Ireland, and while efforts to reduce violence at the interface between communities have been successful, locals describe rising tensions and fear a return to conflict that feels more likely than it has in two decades.
Before the peace agreement, the UVF was one of the two major paramilitary groups, which along with the Ulster Defence Association carried out shootings and bombings in Northern Ireland and the republic, mostly killing Catholic civilians.
They gradually disarmed after the peace deal, but remain banned as terrorist organizations by Britain. Membership of either group is a crime.
Nowadays, loyalist violence is largely directed inwards toward their own communities, often targeting young people who are perceived to be out of line. The Police Service of Northern Ireland attributes roughly 50 punishment beatings a year to loyalist groups, and a handful of punishment shootings. Some loyalist areas are in the worst pockets of deprivation in the U.K., and the appeal of paramilitarism is linked to lack of opportunities.
Harry was at pains to distinguish the true paramilitaries of the past, who should have put down their weapons, from individuals who he says merely claim the brand to run “criminal gangs.” The three men act as mediators within the community and between the police and residents, encouraging locals to come to them with problems as a first point of call.
They described their work as struggling to keep a lid on grassroots anger. "Loyalists are not getting the credit for their work in the community," said Harry. "Obviously there are still paramilitaries out there, and they don't get credit for what they do to prevent things being much worse."
"They're there because the people want them there," added John.
At the heart of the rising tensions, they said, is Brexit.
Membership of the EU was not a salient issue locally before the referendum, but the vote accentuated yet another underlying division.
Northern Ireland voted to remain by a majority of 56 percent, but the result was sharply split along sectarian lines. Brexit had broad support among unionists and was almost uniformly rejected by nationalists. The debate since has inflamed acrimony between the sides as they find themselves holding opposite views on an intractable question that both see as having extremely high stakes.
To make matters worse, the referendum took place at a time when cooperation was already under strain. Since January 2017, the Belfast governing assembly of Stormont has collapsed, with the two sides unable to reach an agreement to govern together as required by the peace deal.
Firemen tend to the scene of a 1974 bombing on Talbot Street in Dublin. Three car bombs exploded simultaneously in the city, killing 26 people. The Ulster Volunteer Force claimed responsibility for the attacks | Keystone/Hulton Archive via Getty Images
John, Tom and Harry described events as building on lingering dissatisfaction they felt with the way the peace process has developed since the Good Friday Agreement.
They see moves to include aspects of Irish identity and culture in Northern Ireland — for example, the nationalist party Sinn Féin's campaign to grant official status to the Irish language — as a threat to the region’s place in the U.K. and an attack on British identity.
They cast historical inquiries and quests for justice as attempts to rewrite a history in which they saw themselves as acting in defense of their communities, and to assist the police and British Army in their campaign against the IRA.
"We voted in support of the Good Friday Agreement,” said Harry, but he indicated that he’s not sure he would do so again.
“I think if there was a rerun of the referendum [on the peace deal] now it would be defeated," he said. "I think the unionists will see that they've been sold a pup."
John, Tom and Harry described events as building on lingering dissatisfaction they felt with the way the peace process has developed since the Good Friday Agreement.
Tom said loyalists have been aggravated by calls by nationalists for a referendum on the reunification of Ireland, as polls have indicated an uptick in support for the idea since Brexit.
Loyalists agreed to the peace deal on the understanding it would end discussion of the matter, he said: "It was sold to the two communities differently. To unionists it was a settlement, to nationalists it was provisional."
The peace deal, he added, now seems to him as beginning a process that only had unity as its final conclusion — a view held by those long opposed to the agreement.
Unlike John and Harry, who voted for Brexit out of anger at the establishment and dislike of immigration and the EU, Tom voted Remain.
He foresaw that the issue could disturb the gentle acquiescence that had been growing in wider society regarding the question of Northern Ireland's constitutional status.
"I had a notion that this would cause constitutional issues," Tom said. "We've come through a difficult period in Northern Ireland.”
“Probably the last thing we needed was Brexit,” he added.
It certainly doesn’t help that the negotiations between the U.K. and the EU have got stuck on disagreements over the so-called Irish backstop, an effort to prevent the return of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
While some loyalists would welcome a visible border as a victory against nationalists, most see it something that would be deeply impractical — and destabilizing.
"Nobody in their right mind wants a no-deal," said Harry. "But there would be some what we call rednecks out there who want it, and even want a border."
"Probably the last thing we needed was Brexit" — former Ulster Volunteer Force member Tom
The trouble with the backstop is that it could symbolize a separation between Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K. — especially if avoiding a hard border on Ireland requires further regulatory or customs checks for goods traveling to and from the U.K.
Conceived as a technocratic solution, it was described as a threat to the union by Theresa May when she was prime minister and as amounting to "annexation" of Northern Ireland by the EU by Arlene Foster, leader of the region’s hardline Democratic Unionist Party.
Polling indicates the backstop would be accepted by a majority in Northern Ireland, but as with Brexit, views on it are sharply split along sectarian lines, with a majority of unionists against it.
If the government accepts the backstop, it would amount to Britain "throwing us under a bus,” said John.
He interpreted recent reports of possible investment in Northern Ireland with a bridge to Scotland or a contract for the struggling shipyard Harland and Wolff as a "warning sign" that London is buttering up loyalists for betrayal.
In a sign of how Brexit has split society along sectarian lines on the issue of EU membership, EU flags have begun to be included on the top of loyalist bonfires, alongside other opposed symbols like the Irish tricolor.
The extent to which Brexit has become caught up in existing tensions can be seen in the “flag protests” — sporadic demonstrations by loyalists in Northern Ireland.
They began in 2012, when a sudden and unforeseen riot broke out at Belfast City Hall after councilors voted to reduce the number days on which the Union Flag is flown from 365 to 18, in line with British government guidelines.
It set off 15 weeks of wildcat unrest in which vehicles were burnt, roads were blocked, and constituency offices of the Alliance party, which had proposed the motion, were ransacked. The protests drew the interest of the British far right, which has been attempting to gain inroads in loyalist communities.
The 2012 protests against the Belfast city council's decision to restrict the number of days the Union Flag would be flown over the city hall | Peter Muhly/AFP via Getty Images
Jamie Bryson, a loyalist blogger and activist who rose to prominence during the flag protests, supported Brexit in the hope that it would destroy the Good Friday Agreement. He now supports a no-deal, because he thinks it would destroy the accord once and for all.
Bryson predicted mass unrest if anything that "looks like a backstop, smells like a backstop" is accepted, describing it as the most serious threat to the union since the outbreak of the Troubles in 1969.
"I think we'd be in uncharted territory," Bryson said. "You would see a mass movement of unionists taking to the street in peaceful protest, but the problem with that is whenever a mass amount of people take to the streets that can end in violence."
‘How things will end’
Sara Houston, a policy researcher and community worker familiar with loyalist areas of east Belfast — a flashpoint during the flag protests — agreed there is a growing disillusionment with the peace.
A return to violence feels more likely than it ever had in her lifetime. "I was only born in '89, so I didn’t grow up in the Troubles. This summer has felt seriously tense, especially in the relations between political parties," Houston said.
"I don’t think they’re aware of how much that stirs people up on the ground. There's a risk that loyalist paramilitaries will start to take to the streets."
Few think that there could be a full repeat of the worst-case scenario: a reignition of the cycles of retaliatory violence that consumed Northern Ireland in the 1970s and '80s. Society has changed significantly, and the paramilitaries are very far from having the men and power they once had.
"This summer has felt seriously tense, especially in the relations between political parties" — policy researcher and community worker Sara Houston
But the former paramilitary combatants predicted this could change in an instant, if the flames of Brexit came in contact with the right ingredients on the ground. "If the young people had a charismatic leader, it would make the flag protests look like a picnic," said Harry.
The major worry is the increasingly active dissident republicans, and the diffuse but watchful loyalists, coming into conflict — which could even happen by accident.
"I don't see a huge appetite for a return to violent conflict,” said Tom. “But if by accident, or design, republicans were to inflict harm on the unionist, loyalist community, well, the past tells us how things will end."
"Although I don't see any appetite towards conflict now, if you had told me when I was 17 or 18 that we were destined for 30 years of conflict I would have told you to eat your hat,” he added.